The UB Post

While the nation's current focus is the presidential race, an equally (if not more) powerful political entity is quietly wrangling for control in the background. This entity is the U.S. Congress; 535 political possibilities who decide which laws get passed, how they are written and how our nation's money is spent. Something is afoot in Congress that may change the balance of power, not only for our legislature, but also for the next president.

In recent memory, the electorate typically puts Congress and the president at odds, giving each of the major parties control of a government branch. There are times when a shift to one side or the other happens, however. Voters sent a particularly strong message in response to George H. W. Bush, giving both houses of Congress and the presidency to the Democrats.

According to the non-partisan “Cook Political Report,” the Democrats may garner 5 to 10 new seats in the House and three to six seats in the Senate. These shifts may give the Democrats a stronger hold in the House and a “golden number” in the Senate.

This golden number is 60 senators out of 100. Why 60? In 1806, Aaron Burr argued successfully that one of the Senate rules for debate— the rule determining when a debate has ended—was useless. Without that rule, as long as a senator can continue to debate, he or she can stop all other business on the Senate floor. This gives a lot of power to the Senate minority party because, although they cannot control what is presented on the floor for a vote, they can cause havoc for bills with which they do not agree.

In 1917, the Senate passed a rule allowing debate to be closed by a vote over objections. This rule requires a super majority, or 60 out of the current 100 senators, to invoke cloture, or closing a debate. With 60 or more senators, the power dynamic shifts and the majority party not only controls what bills are considered in the Senate, they also control how long those pesky minority party senators can debate an issue.

This year, the stage is set for this shift. In the House, six Democratic and 29 Republican representatives are retiring. When a senior congressperson retires, in addition to his or her position as committee chair, that person also takes his or her name recognition with the voters. Also, there's no incumbent presidential candidate this year. Republicans have no coattails to ride. In fact, the country's growing disenchantment with the Iraq war, begun under President George W. Bush, has placed some Republicans in jeopardy of losing their seats because of their association with it.

What does this mean for the next president? If the Democrats get a super majority in the Senate and greater control in the House, he or she will have to learn to embrace a Congressional agenda or risk being dominated by veto overrides and judicial appointments that languish in committee. Congress is a sleeping giant whose time may well be here.

Palmer, 3L and opinion editor for The UB Post, can be reached at scott.palmer@ ubalt.edu.

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